Alright, folks, it’s time for another Oscars ceremony, and like many other film critics, here are my picks on what’s going to win this Sunday, March 10th, 2024. I’m going to pick what I think will win and what I feel could upset and throw everyone’s fan ballots off. I also think Oppenheimer is going to get a ton of awards, so prepare yourselves.
Best Picture
So, while this will be the night’s last award, I copied this list from one of the many trades, so this is the first category. With Oppenheimer winning award after award through the season, I think this is the easiest one to pick here. After so many years, Nolan hasn’t won Best Director or Best Picture, and with all the campaigning he’s been doing, I think it’s finally his year.
“Oppenheimer,” Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, and Christopher Nolan, producers
“American Fiction,” Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson, and Jermaine Johnson, producers
“Anatomy of a Fall,” Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, producers
“Barbie,” David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, producers
“The Holdovers,” Mark Johnson, producer
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, producers
“Maestro,” Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, producers
“Past Lives,” David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, and Pamela Koffler, producers
“Poor Things,” Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, producers
“The Zone of Interest,” James Wilson, producer – This film is my spoiler pick. This film is well made and has an interesting lens into a story about the Holocaust. With time being what they are, this subject matter is at the top of my mind.
Best Director
As I’ve stated earlier, I feel this is Nolan’s time, and this film is taking on this subject matter and making a three-hour biopic talking movie a billion-dollar hit (I’m adding those home sales to make up that last 40 million).
Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer”
Justine Triet — “Anatomy of a Fall”
Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Yorgos Lanthimos — “Poor Things”
Jonathan Glazer — “The Zone of Interest” – This one, just like with Best Picture, has a strong undercurrent of talk about how good this film is, and I feel that it’s grown as award season has gone on. I don’t think Poor Things will because of the depictions of sex in it.
Actor in a Leading Role
So Cillian has been on a run so far, and his performance as Oppenheimer in the film of the same name was very captivating, and I feel that’s what the awards voters also feel. I expect him to get another piece of hardware on Sunday.
Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer”
Bradley Cooper — “Maestro”
Colman Domingo — “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” – BUT this guy Yung Paul Giamatti winning the Globe and going to In & Out after, along with more and more people seeing The Holdovers and being amazed by just how great it is. He didn’t get recognized for other films, and folks could feel like he’s due and take it from Cillian.
Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction”
Actress in a Leading Role
My money is on her being that not only is her character the film’s focus, and her performance’s subtly is terrific in the whole work that it would be a historic award. The Academy does like making historic moments.
Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Annette Bening — “Nyad”
Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan — “Maestro”
Emma Stone — “Poor Things” – The only rival in this category, Stone’s quirky and very showy performance screamed Oscar from the first frame she’s in. This ends up being a choice between a “quiet” performance vs. a “big” performance.
Actor in a Supporting Role
It’s RDJ’s. It’s his return to “Serious” acting after being Iron Man for many years. As I think this whole category robbed Charles Melton of a nomination for one of the best performances of the year RDJ has won this in every award show you could win it at.
Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer”
Sterling K. Brown — “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro – “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Ryan Gosling — “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo — “Poor Things” – it might be the most showy of all these and people like that. Of course, Bruce Banner could upstage his boy Tony Stark.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Much like RDJ, Da’Vine has won this category in every award show that she’s been nominated in to date. While this might be the only thing The Holdovers has to a sure bet it’s also a very fantastic performance.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers”
Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” – While it could be Danielle Brooks, the new Color Purple aged like milk. Yet Blunt could get it just because of all the many people just voting Oppenheimer down ballot.
Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera – “Barbie”
Jodie Foster — “Nyad”
Adapted Screenplay
I’m going by what awards I’ve seen this win so far and the talk around it I’ve heard since campaigning began in the winter of last year. It’s a very good script, and I think people do think this is an outstanding debut, and honestly, they give Black auteurs this as a kind of consolation prize of late.
“American Fiction,” written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
An Orion Pictures Release
Photo credit: Claire Folger © 2023 Orion Releasing LLC. All Rights Reserved.
“Barbie,” written by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach – this time, I’m picking two because I think Barbie could get it because voters feel guilty or mad that Greta didn’t get a Best Director nomination.
“Oppenheimer,” written for the screen by Christopher Nolan – Again, folks are just going for one thing down ballot.
“Poor Things,” screenplay by Tony McNamara
“The Zone of Interest,” written by Jonathan Glazer
Original Screenplay
I’m going with this even though it’s a foreign film, and that rarely happens. I feel this film has some serious momentum, especially with the international parts of the Academy. I expect this to get some award here since it wasn’t put up for best International film by France, and it does earn its admiration.
“Anatomy of a Fall,” screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
“The Holdovers,” written by David Hemingson
“Maestro,” written by Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
“May December,” screenplay by Samy Burch; story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives,” written by Celine Song – This might be the surprise one, though, as this film really touched people but it can’t break through to get real big momentum for the bigger awards. It was kind of forgotten, but for the romantics, the film is going to be talked about for years to come, especially as a debut.
Cinematography
It’s Oppenheimer’s to lose, and there are other films I feel should be here that are not. That IMAX scale on this is impressive to see.
“Oppenheimer” – Hoyte van Hoytema
“El Conde” – Edward Lachman
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – Rodrigo Prieto
“Maestro” – Matthew Libatique
“Poor Things” – Robbie Ryan – this film has a look and great use of temperature, color, and use of lens types to communicate this story, and the voters in this category might want to award that more than favorite.
Original Song
This song won the Grammy. It’s a done deal for me. While the Academies of Motion Pictures and Recording Arts are different bodies, I’d say most of the people in the music parts of this Academy are in the Recording Academy. So yeah, I think this is done. Billie and Finneas get Ws, folks.
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie,” music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot,” music and lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie,” music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt – Baby Goose love, but I think it will lose because folks might feel a way about awarding Ken in a movie titled Barbie.
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony,” music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon,” music and lyrics by Scott George
Costume Design
To me, this is one of the things Barbie can easily take because making all that toy fashion in a real-world size and for all those characters along with how it looks next to the “real world” characters and their clothing. It really set it apart.
“Barbie” – Jacqueline Durran
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – Jacqueline West
“Napoleon” – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
“Oppenheimer” – Ellen Mirojnick
“Poor Things” – Holly Waddington – this film has some very creative and wild looks in this film. It feels completely original compared to everything else.
Sound
Honestly, this film’s most important facet is how it uses sound in the story. Without the sound, it’s not much that stands out to me. It’s the core of what makes this film what it is.
“The Zone of Interest,” Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
“The Creator,” Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
“Maestro,” Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One,” Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
“Oppenheimer,” Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, and Kevin O’Connell – explosions folks.
Original Score
Like Billie, our man Ludwig is running up them Ws on everyone else. It’s wild to think about because rarely is a film composer also known for producing music and has just been a complete beast in this category for years now.
“Oppenheimer” – Ludwig Göransson
“American Fiction” – Laura Karpman
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” John Williams
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – Robbie Robertson
“Poor Things” – Jerskin Fendrix – is a memorable score that goes along with this weird, out-there fairy tale of a film.
International Feature Film
As this won’t win Best Picture, this will be its win as a way for the Academy to have two Best Pictures. If Anatomy of a Fall was in this, that could steal it.
“The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
“Io Capitano” (Italy)
“Perfect Days” (Japan)
“Society of the Snow” (Spain) – this got a lot of love and could get Netflix a good win here.
“The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
Animated Feature Film
So why am I going against the grain and picking this film over the favorite Spider-Verse? It’s because I don’t think it’s the favorite anymore. Once they announced Miyazaki’s film was coming out and they gave it a date for the West, you could tell that all the film folks were salivating for the only Anime Auteur they ever cared about bringing what they were told was his last film. Even with people not totally getting the story the animation is so well done that it can even overshadow the more experimental things done by Sony Pictures Animation were doing with Miles’ newest movie adventure. I feel they want to give him some more flowers now while they still can. Spider-Verse still has another film to go.
“The Boy and the Heron,” Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
“Elemental,” Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
“Nimona,” Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
“Robot Dreams,” Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Amy Pascal – I think this is the actual favorite for most, but the last one also one five years ago, so that might hold it back on winning this time over celebrating Miyazaki before he passes away. It does some amazing things that could still be rambling around their minds when it comes to voting.
Makeup and Hairstyling
The aging makeup on both leads is seamless and not distracting. It being so close to realism and capturing what real people looked like might be more celebrated than some of the films on the list but also more than a few others like Oppenheimer.
“Maestro,” Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
“Golda,” Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby, and Ashra Kelly-Blue
“Oppenheimer,” Luisa Abel
“Poor Things,” Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston – the makeup on Willem Dafoe alone can get this film the award for me. The hairstyling is also so very creative that it stands out compared to the other nominees.
“Society of the Snow,” Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Production Design
This film took all those decades of toys and made them into a world that people can walk around in. If it doesn’t win this, then what are they doing? All of it is perfect. This level of care is only matched by theme parks by Disney or Universal.
“Barbie,” production design: Sarah Greenwood; set decoration: Katie Spencer
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” production design: Jack Fisk; set decoration: Adam Willis
“Napoleon,” production design: Arthur Max; set decoration: Elli Griff
“Oppenheimer,” production design: Ruth De Jong; set decoration: Claire Kaufman
“Poor Things,” production design: James Price and Shona Heath; set decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek – this film creates an entirely alternative version of our world that makes it alien and familiar at the same time. It’s so original and creative that it can sweep in and steal it.
Film Editing
I just think this is the easy answer and that it’s the easier choice for more voters.
“Oppenheimer” – Jennifer Lame
“Anatomy of a Fall” – Laurent Sénéchal – This has some really solid editing, even if it’s a very familiar film genre. You know how they should generally be, but seeing them done well is also great.
“The Holdovers” – Kevin Tent
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – Thelma Schoonmaker
“Poor Things” – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Visual Effects
This Godzilla film is amazing, and it looks better than most of the effects films that came out this year from the West. It also only cost 15 million dollars for the whole film. I think that will amaze some and want to be championed by their peers for being able to really craft great effects along with the director and not have to rush or redo things that a lot of tentpole films in the West go through.
“Godzilla Minus One,” Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
“The Creator,” Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould – this film looks amazing and is also cheaper than you would think. They were able to make their effects after the film was shot so it could look perfectly merged with the footage and that it all looked like a consistent and tactile world.
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One,” Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould “Napoleon,” Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
Now, I haven’t had a chance to see the nominees for these categories. I either never got to attend, was not invited to a screening, or didn’t have time to watch films when they were sent to me during critics voting time late in December/Early January.
Live Action Short Film
“The After,” Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
“Invincible,” Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
“Knight of Fortune,” Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
“Red, White and Blue,” Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
Animated Short Film
“Letter to a Pig,” Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
“Ninety-Five Senses,” Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
“Our Uniform,” Yegane Moghaddam
“Pachyderme,” Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
“War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko,” Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
Documentary Feature Film
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President,” Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
“The Eternal Memory”
“Four Daughters,” Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
“To Kill a Tiger,” Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
“20 Days in Mariupol,” Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, and Raney Aronson-Rath
Documentary Short Film
“The ABCs of Book Banning,” Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
“The Barber of Little Rock,” John Hoffman and Christine Turner
“Island in Between,” S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
“The Last Repair Shop,” Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó,” Sean Wang and Sam Davis
So these are my picks for the 96th Oscars. If I win any of y’all money, I want my taste! Oh, and by the way, here are my favorite films from 2023.
- Blue Giant
- All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt
- Oppenheimer
- They Cloned Tyrone
- Origin
- American Fiction
- The Iron Claw
- Godzilla Minus One
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ferrari
- The Holdovers
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning part one
- Barbie
- Past Lives
- Super Mario Bros. Movie
- The Real Slam Dunk*
- Shin Kamen Rider
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- A Thousand and One
Honorable mention: The Creator, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Asteroid City, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, John Wick: Chapter 4, Scream VI, Magic Mike’s Last Dance, Polite Society, Tetris, The Blackening, Chevalier, Suzume, Blue Beetle
